Airlines and Economic Growth: Evaluating the Impact of the Aviation Sector on Tanzania’s Development

Abstract

This study examined the contribution of the aviation sector to Tanzania’s economic growth by analyzing the effects of air passenger traffic, cargo volumes, aviation infrastructure investment, operational air routes, and international tourist arrivals from 1990 to 2024. Employing a mixed-methods design that combined multiple regression analysis with NVivo-assisted thematic analysis, the study provides comprehensive evidence of aviation’s role in shaping national economic performance. The regression findings show that passenger traffic, cargo volumes, and infrastructure investment exert statistically significant positive impacts on GDP growth, highlighting aviation’s contribution to stimulating tourism, trade, and overall productivity. By contrast, the number of operational routes and international tourist arrivals did not demonstrate statistically significant effects, pointing to persistent structural inefficiencies, weak route optimization, and policy misalignment. Qualitative insights reinforced these observations, revealing recurrent themes of infrastructure gaps, policy fragmentation, regulatory delays, and service quality constraints. The study concludes that while Tanzania’s aviation sector holds substantial economic potential, unlocking this potential requires coordinated reforms aimed at enhancing connectivity, strengthening airline competitiveness, and accelerating regional liberalization frameworks. These measures are essential for positioning the aviation sector as a more effective driver of sustained economic development.

Keywords:       Aviation Sector, Economic Growth, Air Passenger Traffic, Cargo Volumes, Infrastructure Investment, Connectivity, Liberalization, Tourism, SAATM