Assessing Household Vulnerability to Climate Risks in Mukuru Special Planning Area (SPA), Nairobi:

A Mixed-Methods Spatial Analysis

Abstract

Households in Nairobi’s Mukuru Special Planning Area (SPA) face overlapping vulnerabilities driven by poverty, insecure tenure, and recurrent climate hazards. Guided by the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework and Social-Ecological Systems theory, this mixed-method spatial analysis combined 376 household surveys, six focus group discussions, and GIS mapping. Results show that flood exposure (β = 0.47), improved sanitation (β = −0.21), and income (β = −0.16) were the strongest determinants of household vulnerability, collectively explaining over 90% of its variance. Households relying on informal employment and living in flood-prone zones faced heightened risks, while access to sanitation, secure tenure, and early preparedness substantially reduced exposure. Findings underscore that resilience in Mukuru is infrastructural, social, and institutional, calling for participatory, household-centred planning that links service provision, tenure security, and adaptive capacity-building to equitable climate resilience.